YOKOSUKA, Japan –
Anticipation develops in a briefing room on-top of command hill. After attention on deck is called out loudly, the admiral walks into the room, and all ranks rise to attention; the commander’s update brief is now underway.
Going before all others at the brief is a seasoned triple warfare qualified Petty Officer 1st Class (IW/SW/AW) Sarah McBride. She steps up to the podium and addresses the 7th Fleet commander, and the commanders of nine Commander, Task Forces and their staffs, and then proceeds to brief them on forecasts and sea conditions throughout the Indo-Asia Pacific.
The importance of their job is chronicled in legendary landings like D-Day during the Battle of Normandy in WWII, when the accuracy of the meteorologists tipped the scale of victory, and In the Battle of the Bulge, when weather’s unpredictability nearly led to an Allied defeat.
Every ship and asset, in the 7th Fleet Area of Operation (AOO), is monitored around the clock by the Navy’s Meteorology and Oceanography Community (METOC) watch team of Aerographers inside the Fleet Command Center.
A running joke in the METOC is people always blame the weather guessers for any unpredictability in weather conditions — it’s also a running burden. For McBride, one of her greatest fears is an aircraft crash occurring while she is off duty. “You don’t want to feel that responsibility for missing something that caused some damages,” McBride said.
7th Fleet’s area of operation spans more than 124 million square kilometers, stretching from the International Date Line to the India/Pakistan border; and from the Kuril Islands in the North to the Antarctic in the South. 50% of the world’s population lives within the area.
The late summer months of June through November are particularly challenging for 7th Fleet’s METOC, because it’s the peak season for tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific. This is when their expertise is challenged; keeping ships out of harm’s way is the top priority — even if it means delaying schedules to move them out of the way from hazardous weather.
An example of that expertise was demonstrated in October when typhoons Sarika and Haima caused havoc in the region, with the Philippines taking the brunt of the damage. Typhoon Haima, in particular, killed eight people and caused roughly $50 million in damages, according to news reports. The METOC watch team moved ships, assets, and personnel out of the way of both typhoons “We didn’t lose anybody because this really serious storm went through and we told them, ‘Hey you guys got to move.’” said Petty Officer 2nd Class Brandon Armstrong, an analyst for the METOC watch team.
Chief Petty Officer Stella Swartz, the METOC operations chief, said their number one priority is also their biggest challenge, especially because tropical storms are dynamic and unpredictable. “It’s not an exact science. It can be very challenging to not only forecast, but to relay that information to the decision maker and help them make the right decision for their asset,” Swartz said.
Armstrong said it’s rewarding when the watch team moves ships out of the way and the ships don’t get damaged. “It’s very nice to know… we’re potentially saving lives, and saving damage costs, and various things along those lines.”
“When you’re trying to get the information together you can feel a lot of pressure to provide a very accurate forecast, and when you actually get the forecast right that when it’s the most rewarding, because you know that you are the safety buffer for the sailors that are onboard that ship or onboard that flight,” Swartz said.
Swartz explained why the Western Pacific does not have a defined tropical cyclone season by Navy standard, and stressed the point that tropical cyclones can actually occur at any time. In fact, during 2015 the 7th fleet METOC watch team observed 22 tropical cyclones in the 7th Fleet AOO between December and April. Besides the constant threat of tropical cyclones, the winter season also brings its own unique set of weather phenomena that can cause significant operational impacts. Cold surges and mid-latitude cyclones can build winds and seas well above operational limits, snow events can blind assets and shut down installations. In addition, the majority of our AOO lies in the Pacific Rim, which carries the constant threat of volcanic activity, earthquakes, and tsunamis.
Swartz said “There is no ‘slow season’ when it comes to weather in this AOR, so it is vital that our watch team stays vigilant and ready to respond 24/7, 365 days a year.”